|HP's Bradley on 'post-PC': "people are trying to be dramatic"|
|By Thom Holwerda on 2012-09-20 22:22:39|
|If there's one over-used buzzword currently making the rounds in the technology industry, it's 'post-PC world' - or the notion that desktops and laptops are a dying breed. Todd Bradley, executive vice president of HP's printing and personal systems group, thinks this is a nonsensical notion - and he's right.|
|By earksiinni on 2012-09-20 23:01:26|
The real revolution that tablets are ushering in is the walled garden approach to software payment and delivery. iPhone started it, but it wasn't until the iPad that we saw a successful implementation that combined iOS App Store's model with a reasonably large screen intended for PC-ish work. Windows 8 and Surface are the next logical steps: the former brings the PC platform to the payment/distribution model, the latter brings the emerging tablet platform and its accompanying payment/distribution model closer to the PC. |
The real question is what will happen once we start seeing iPads at Goodwill and garage sales. In a PC world, you can buy the hardware, install your previous software, or even pirate your software like most of the world does. Loose/non-existant software controls make hardware usage fluid. Will it remain fluid with tablets?
What about internet cafes all around the world running pirated software, or all those XP installs running cracked versions of Photoshop? Will they ever be able to jump onto the tablet bandwagon?
|- Score: 7|
|Comment by v_bobok|
|By v_bobok on 2012-09-20 23:07:37|
|For content-consumers sure, good ol' PC is a thing of the past. Now it's Smart TVs, tablets/pads, supersmartphones etc. Another question is how can you replace a workstation, you know, the thing that one uses to actually create the content everyone else consume, e.g. software, games, artwork, music and videos.|
|- Score: 10|
|By kwan_e on 2012-09-20 23:10:20|
One of my favourite websites. Everyone likes to be the one who "called it". But history shows that it's nothing more than people staring at the toaster or the traffic light and saying "Now!" every four seconds.
* Of course, even more sadder are the stock market types on this website who won't even entertain the possibility that "the end" may come because their numerology system convinced them it won't.
|- Score: 7|
|RE: Trickle down|
|By smashIt on 2012-09-20 23:12:22|
> The real revolution that tablets are ushering in is the walled garden approach to software payment and delivery. iPhone started it... |
steam and xbla anyone?
|- Score: 4|
|Missing the Usecases|
|By transami on 2012-09-20 23:15:10|
I think you are missing the basic use cases. That's what really matters. If a tablet can ultimately fill in for the use cases of a traditional PC, then ultimately it will supplant the PC. And I am certain they can. It's really just a matter of time before the software is all in place, and not much time at that. Then all the hardware vendors have to do is make it easy to walk up to a *terminal* and tap into the tablet. |
A terminal can be any supplemental interface, but in the PC case obviously it is keyboard and mouse, and optionally a larger monitor.
|- Score: 3|
|post-PC doesn't mean PC-is-dead|
|By jared_wilkes on 2012-09-20 23:51:16|
Apple's post-PC narrative has never proclaimed the death of the PC. However, it's foolish to claim "work" is the umbrella for these markets. Smartphones will likely be one of the few markets the size of (if not greater than) the entire population of the planet, utterly dwarfing PCs. Tablets, 3 years in and with few successful products outside of Apple, will soon skyrocket past PCs (although not as ubiquitous as smartphones). We work less than 1/3 of our life. Even then, the majority of work tasks can be done equally well, if not better, on a tablet or smartphone. (Heck, even jobs that are computing intensive can be augmented and improved with a supplemental smartphone or tablet.) Moreover, we are also doing non-work during work time (personal research, entertainment, communication, social networking). Most old school PCs spend the majority of their cycles on entertainment and tasks well-suited to smartphones and tablets (browsing, games, social networks, messaging, passive media consumption). Now... traits like instant on, long battery life, power efficiency, size, simplicity of hardware and software are compared against the exemplars created by the post-PC devices. Most consumer-facing (and even enterprise) software development efforts are primarily driven by the new mobile devices or the cloud. |
Yes, the PC will preserve a role for a long time and for most users, but it will be a small fraction of developers's and users's time and investment. It is already so. And we are in a post-PC era. For that to be true the PC does not need to be dead. (That's like saying the 90s wasn't the Windows era because graphic designers still needed (preferred) Macs.)
(I wouldn't want to speak for your experience, but, yes, many people I know already do more "computing" on smartphones and tablets than computers. A far, far greater number certainly do more "personal computing" on the smartphone and/or tablet. And in many cases, people I know who did not use a computer at work (or barely so) are doing NEW and MORE computing by augmenting non-computer work via the smartphone or tablet where the PC was otherwise superfluous. But I guess others see the world as all work, in front of a desk?)
Edited 2012-09-21 00:01 UTC
|- Score: 2|
|Who goes to an HP EVP to define an era?|
|By jared_wilkes on 2012-09-21 00:16:14|
I know some will deny this ("Business success doesn't matter.... Financial success isn't necessarily driven by technological trends... Yada yada yada"), but I don't think the financial reality can be wholly dismissed either: |
|- Score: 1|
|RE: Trickle down|
|By earksiinni on 2012-09-21 00:25:23|
|But they didn't and don't offer nearly the same breadth of software.|
|- Score: 2|
|RE: Missing the Usecases|
|By terrahwk on 2012-09-21 03:04:39|
> If a tablet can ultimately fill in for the use cases of a traditional PC, then ultimately it will supplant the PC. And I am certain they can. |
Tablets have some overlap with tasks a PC currently performs, but are unlikely to replace a PC entirely for quite some time, if ever.
Right now I'm using three monitors. The two guys next to me use six monitors each. Monitoring alarms, Visio-style design sheets and managing multiple disparate systems. I'm sure there are plenty of other (better) use cases, too.
Your world may make do with a display and input device, but many other people need more.
|- Score: 6|
|RE: Trickle down|
|By darknexus on 2012-09-21 04:00:41|
> But they didn't and don't offer nearly the same breadth of software. |
Not yet, but that situation could change. That's like saying Windows could never one-up the Macintosh back in the early 90's, because it didn't offer nearly as much software.
I think, eventually (and I mean probably twenty years or more) the PC will be supplanted. I do not, however, believe we will see the demise of the traditional PC input methods (keyboard and mouse) nor will we see large screens die off. I think what we'll eventually see is a modular system where by you dock your tablet into a larger workstation. The tablet is the control (the tower, if you will) and you have keyboards, mice, monitors and external storage.
|- Score: 4|