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| Windows 8: the next twenty years |
| By Thom Holwerda on 2012-10-16 15:47:28 |
| Casey Muratori dissects the consequences of Windows 8's closed distribution model. "But how realistic is the assumption that the Windows desktop will still be a usable computing platform in the future? And what would be the consequences were it to disappear, leaving Windows users with only the closed software ecosystem introduced in Windows 8? To answer these questions, this volume of Critical Detail examines the immediate and future effects of Microsoft's current certification requirements, explores in depth what history predicts for the lifespan of the classic Windows desktop, and takes a pragmatic look at whether an open or closed ecosystem would be better for Microsoft as a company." The section that details how none - none - of this year's greatest games (or last year's fantastic Skyrim) and only one of this year's Emmy-nominated TV shows pass Microsoft's rules sent chills down my spine. |
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| RE[2]: I don't think ... |
| By WorknMan on 2012-10-16 18:16:18 |
|
> Well, it might not become closed down, but it might simply disappear at one release, leaving Metro and the Windows Store to become the new Windows desktop. Even assuming you're right, it'll be 10 years at a MINIMUM before that happens, and I would guess more like 20. Remember, Windows' bread and butter is its huge app ecosystem. Take that away, and watch its users disappear faster than a pizza at a Weight Watcher's convention. Hell, we're still trying to get businesses off of IE6. |
 - Score: 3 |
| RE: So long, Windows. |
| By franksands on 2012-10-16 18:24:51 |
| And how is Mac OS X any different? Every new version brings the os closer to iOS. Furthermore, the last version brought out "Gatekeeper" which is a application that checks from where other apps can be installed in your mac. Right now it's possible to say "allow from everywhere", but there's another saying "only from Mac App Store", and the way things are going, it looks like it'll be the only option 2 or 3 versions down the road. |
| - Score: 3 |
| Comment by Drumhellar |
| By Drumhellar on 2012-10-16 18:29:37 |
|
I don't think the Windows desktop will disappear, or become closed. There are way too many use cases where Metro absolutely won't cut it. In many of these situations, Linux is already a good fit. In some, it is even an excellent fit. It's possible Microsoft is willing to sacrifice a few desktop licenses in exchange for a larger share of the tablet market, but I doubt it. These desktop installs are what necessitates Windows in the server room. If your core business can't use Windows, it becomes less necessary on the periphery. |
| - Score: 3 |
| Comment by Luminair |
| By Luminair on 2012-10-16 19:56:48 |
|
the impetus difference between the old way of doing things and the new way is convenience. the convenient digital stores built into every new operating system are great. that they're closed and proprietary is a bonus exploit by the businesses concerned. to me that means the new way provides less selection and allows less competition. to me, there needs to be separation between content and delivery, just like there should be with media and data connections. the way you acquire software should not be so completely controlled by the device you use it on. what I'm talking about isn't radical. having to choose where to get your stuff is the way the physical world works. digital tech allows a tighter stranglehold on people than this physical world we enjoy. thus the netscape antitrust case forcing microsoft to make access to other browsers convenient in windows. thus net neutrality forcing businesses to treat you the same as someone they like better than you. to me, digital stores built into operating systems are an antitrust problem. |
| - Score: 2 |
| RE: If, but |
| By Alfman on 2012-10-16 20:02:15 |
|
While microsoft and apple are the most visible corporate players today who are aiming to strip consumers of traditional software rights such as homebrew development, side-loading, self-modification, etc, their success (which remains to be seen in the long term) will only encourage others to adopt the same role of software gatekeepers. The closed ecosystems, over time, could snowball to include the majority of consumer devices in the future. Even with android devices, which typically permit application distribution outside of app stores, there is already clear evidence of corporate pressure to ban end user sideloading. http://crackberry.com/alec-saund... http://htcsource.com/2011/02/sli... http://www.tomsguide.com/us/Barn... And this is just for sideloading of apps. We aren't talking about the idea of root on one's own hardware, where the battle is already lost even with android devices. Once the root exploits are fixed and hardware restrictions such as those in UEFI become more mature, the ability to root devices will forever be lost to history. "Is it true grandpa? You used to be able to install & run your own operating system?" The thing I find really sad is that more knowledgeable people won't stand up against sideloading bans on account of the existence of root exploits today. It's a short term temporary "solution" to the long term problem which is corporate gatekeepers and walled gardens. Edited 2012-10-16 20:07 UTC |
| - Score: 3 |
| RE[2]: So long, Windows. |
| By _txf_ on 2012-10-16 21:42:15 |
|
> Furthermore, the last version brought out "Gatekeeper" which is a application that checks from where other apps can be installed in your mac. But they are providing a way out. Plenty of osx developers and apps do not use the app store. MS is pushing people hard to Metro by making the regular desktop paradigm harder to use, yet it isn't providing a way out to create apps for an open system. |
| - Score: 0 |
| Vote with your Wallet |
| By Lorin on 2012-10-16 21:49:54 |
| Simply do not buy Windows 8 or any machine that is preloaded with it, there are many sources to buy clean machines. |
| - Score: 1 |
| RE: ReactOS - cloning XP |
| By tomz on 2012-10-16 21:55:06 |
|
XP has drivers, everything supports it, it isn't complex. It has security holes, but rewriting it should patch them. Then people like Steve Gibson and I will simply switch to that and leave the Windows Bitrot entirely. Or there's WINE under Linux :). It will probably fail but be long and drawn-out. Microsoft doesn't have an ecosystem, but a series of isolated islands. And archipeligo. The Zune players couldn't run Xbox stuff, which can't run PC stuff, which can run Win8/ARM stuff. Google/Android has players (Philips/Samsung), Phones (everybody), Tablets (almost everyone), all mostly can share apps even across versions wider than iOS2-6. They have ChromeBooks and the desktop but stuff is in the cloud but is accessed like a filesystem. Apple is similar, though less desktop-filesystem legacy. Microsoft is a mess with lots of isolated bits with few bridges. |
| - Score: 2 |
| RE: Comment by Drumhellar |
| By Lorin on 2012-10-16 21:59:03 |
|
A few licenses? My company alone is equal to 200k and more will follow, now take $100 - 150 per and multiply that lost revenue. We are deciding which Linux distro to support and will put all that money into that one. Edited 2012-10-16 22:02 UTC |
| - Score: 1 |
| RE: Vote with your Wallet |
| By Morgan on 2012-10-16 23:00:06 |
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But, what happens when Microsoft stops selling licenses for Windows 7 and earlier? That "clean" machine you just bought is now limited to Windows 8+ for a Microsoft OS. I don't disagree with you; indeed I prefer to buy off-lease business machines for the reliability, and so that I can install what I want. But there will come a time when Microsoft will no longer offer licenses for Windows 7, and it may be sooner than you think given their aggressive push to version 8. |
| - Score: 3 |
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